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Surveys and analyses

Surveys and analyses

The Institute H21 (IH21) has been actively conducting various theoretical and empirical research studies since 2014. Overall the institute executed 31 election simulations where the Janeček Method (D21) was applied and tested along with other voting methods.

Research Objectives

Elections
Research method
Sample
Weighted sample
Constituency under Study
2018 Senate Elections
Field Study
4,096
1,703
5 districts in the Czech Republic
2018 Presidential Election
Field Study
2,568
1,754
The Czech Republic
2014 Senate Elections
Exit poll
4,750
4,750
12 districts in the Czech Republic
2014 Municipal Elections
Exit poll
3,965
3,965
13 districts in the Czech Republic

2018

2018 Senate Elections

Investigative Themes

Voting Methods Applied

  1. First-past-the-post voting (FPTP)
  2. The Janeček Method (D21) with three plus and one minus votes 
  3. Approval Voting (AV)  
  4. Combined Approval Voting (CAV) 
  5. Majority Judgement (MJ)
  6. Instant-runoff Voting (IRV)

Research Methodology 

Number of Respondents
N = 4,096 respondents (18+), weighted sample of 1,703 voters
Data Collection
September 28th - October 6th 2018
Method of the Data Collection
CAPI
Sampling Method
Quota sampling
Research Characteristics
Representative sample of the voting population in selected 5 districts: Chomutov, Třebíč, Ostrava - město, Brno - město, Praha 2. Based on random sampling and weighting of the collected data.
Sample Characteristics
Data is representative for the adult population from the selected districts based on:
- socio-demographic variables (age, gender, education)
- age x education, gender x age, working status
- participation and indicated party preference in the 2017 Parliamentary elections
- participation and candidate preference in the first round of the 2018 Senate elections
Agencies
MEDIAN s.r.o. and STEM/MARK, a.s.
Statistical Error
Random and statistical error of +/- 1.5 % for responses of the 5 % and of +/- 4 % for responses of the 50 % of the sample

Vote structure under the Janeček Method (D21) 

  • The average number of Plus votes: 2.42
  • The average number of Minus votes: 0.69

2018 Presidential Elections

Investigative Themes

Voting Methods Applied

  1. First-past-the-post voting (FPTP)
  2. The Janeček Method (D21) with three plus and one minus votes 

Research Methodology 

Number of Respondents
N = 2,568 respondents (18+), weighted sample of 1,754 voters
Data Collection
January 12th - January 13th 2018
Method of the Data Collection
CAPI
Sampling Method
Quota sampling
Research Characteristics
Representative sample of the Czech population based on random sampling and weighting of the collected data.
Sample Characteristics
Data is representative for the adult population of the Czech Republic districts based on:
- socio-demographic variables (age, gender, education, residency size)
- age x education, gender x age, working status
- participation and indicated party preference in the 2017 Parliamentary elections
- participation and candidate preference in the first round of the 2018 Presidential elections
Agencies
MEDIAN s.r.o. and STEM/MARK, a.s.
Statistical Error
Random and statistical error of +/- 1.5 % for responses of the 5 % and of +/- 4 % for responses of the 50 % of the sample

Vote structure under the Janeček Method (D21) 

  • The average number of Plus votes: 2.34
  • The average number of Minus votes: 0.78

2014

2014 Municipal Elections

Investigative Themes

Voting Methods Applied

  1. First-past-the-post voting (FPTP)
  2. The Janeček Method (D21) with three plus and one minus votes 

Research Methodology 

Number of Respondents
N = 3,965 respondents (18+)
Data Collection
October 11th - October 12th 2014
Method of the Data Collection
CAPI
Sampling Method
Quota sampling
Research Characteristics
Representative sample of the voting population in 13 selected cities:
a) large cities: Praha, Olomouc, Liberec, Teplice, Karlovy Vary
b) medium cities: Říčany, Nový Jičín, Hodonín, Tábor, Ostrov
c) small cities: Držovice, Velká Polom, Chýně
based on random sampling
Sample Characteristics
Data is representative for the adult population of the selected cities based on:
- socio-demographic variables (age, gender, education, residency)
Agencies
Market Vision
Statistical Error
Random and statistical error of +/- 1.5 % for responses of the 5 % and +/- 4 % for responses of the 50 % of the sample

Vote structure under the Janeček Method (D21) 

  • The average number of Plus votes: 1.67
  • The average number of Minus votes: 0.53

Findings from 31 Election Simulations

1. The majority of voters cast more than one vote when allowed.

2. Voter knowledge of candidates was the key factor influencing the number of votes cast. 

3. The Janeček Method (D21) favours candidates with broader support.

4. Under the Janeček Method (D21) the winners were different in six out 31 simulated elections compared to the official results.

Contacts

Are you interested in the Janeček Method (D21) and the research conducted by the Institute H21? Do you want to cooperate with us on research projects?

Jan Oreský

Research Dept.
jan.oresky@ih21.org